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Weather forecast review project for operational open-water river forecasting

Description

The purpose of this project was to develop an understanding of the uncertainties in weather forecasting and propose a method of how the River Forecast Centre can manage those uncertainties when... More ≫

Description

The purpose of this project was to develop an understanding of the uncertainties in weather forecasting and propose a method of how the River Forecast Centre can manage those uncertainties when modeling rainfall scenarios and issuing flood advisories. Accurate flood forecasting requires accurate forecasts of rainfall amount, location, timing, and intensity. This project was designed to assess how well these rainfall forecast requirements are currently being met by the current suite of popular numerical weather prediction models, for extreme events in Alberta, and specifically for severe flood situations.

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Review of 2002 12 Km MM5 model results : final report

Description

In a previous project, RWDI Air Inc. was retained in part to produce a subset of Mesoscale Model version 5 (MM5) output files covering the Province of Alberta based on model outputs for the 2002... More ≫

Description

In a previous project, RWDI Air Inc. was retained in part to produce a subset of Mesoscale Model version 5 (MM5) output files covering the Province of Alberta based on model outputs for the 2002 model year provided by Environment Canada. MM5 is a model used for creating weather forecasts and climate projections. This document reports on a review of the overall performance of the model in a general sense for a limited number of key parameters and to address some issues related to the data.

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Freezing date probabilities

Description

This fact sheet provides information for estimating probable freezing dates for 114 locations in Alberta. Average dates of frost occurrence have often been used for this purpose. However, averages... More ≫

Description

This fact sheet provides information for estimating probable freezing dates for 114 locations in Alberta. Average dates of frost occurrence have often been used for this purpose. However, averages have limited value because they denote the 50 per cent risk level or the probable occurrence of untimely frost in, for example, five out of ten years. This may well be too much risk for economic viability in the long run. On the other hand, trying to avoid all frost damage by sticking to a limited number of hardy, short-season crops may not be profitable either. The indirect costs of lost opportunities could be very high. For planning purposes, it may be better to use an intermediate risk level, such as 25 per cent, where the advantages of growing a particular crop outweigh the risks of occasional frost damage.

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