The Alberta Activity Index (AAX) closely tracks economic activity. Developed by Alberta Treasury Board and Finance, it is a weighted average of nine monthly indicators (employment, average weekly earnings, retail trade, wholesale trade, manufacturing, new truck sales, housing starts, rigs drilling and oil production). This data file is updated monthly. See the related tab for a link to the AAX web page which includes highlights and a chart.
March 1, 2024
Title and Dataset Information
Publisher / Creator Information
Treasury Board and Finance
Date Added to catalogue
Usage / Licence
Alberta Treasury Board and Finance has developed the Alberta Activity Index (AAX). The index is similar to the Index of Provincial Economic Momentum published by National Bank, but differs somewhat in terms of both the choice of indicators and methodology. The AAX is based on a weighted average of nine different monthly indicators meant to capture activity in important sectors of the Alberta economy. These are employment and average weekly earnings for the labour market; retail trade and housing starts for household spending; wholesale trade, manufacturing and new truck sales for general business activity; and the number of rigs drilling and oil production for the energy sector.
Indicators that display a seasonal pattern have been seasonally adjusted using the X-12 ARIMA method. All indicators that are expressed in dollar terms have been deflated by Alberta CPI. In some instances, series that do not have coverage going back to 1981 have been extended backwards by splicing with related series.
Following these adjustments the index is constructed by taking a weighted average of the logarithmic growth rates of each series. The weights for the growth rates are calculated using the inverse of the standard deviation of the respective series and scaled to sum to one. Since the raw index systematically underpredicts the real GDP growth rate, a bias adjustment is included.
Macroeconomic Forecasting Team. Treasury Board and Finance.